As one Oscar strategist who positively has a canine on this hunt emailed me Sunday evening after the SAG Awards present, “Now we’re having us some enjoyable.” Certainly. What an fascinating weekend so far as the Oscar race goes.

With three key guilds weighing in, the decision on momentum is blended, however it’s clear two movies — 1917 and Parasite — acquired essentially the most mojo in these Oscar precursor reveals from the guilds, all of which overlap with the membership of the Academy of Movement Image Arts and Sciences.

Joaquin Phoenix Renee ZellwegerJoaquin Phoenix Renee Zellweger

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First the predictable: Tonight’s SAG Awards, for which I additionally participated in Deadline’s stay weblog, commenting on each the film and TV winners, has had its off years in forecasting Oscar’s eventual 4 performing winners (final yr the guild solely went 2 for four). However this yr I’m all however sure, wanting an enormous shocker on February 9 on the Dolby, that they acquired all of it proper. It appears each Sunday the identical 4 actors get to make their option to the stage whereas everybody else has to only accept their nomination. It’s all however a positive factor, at the same time as we sit 10 days earlier than Oscar balloting begins, that Joaquin Phoenix will win Finest Actor, Renee Zellweger will win Finest Actress, Laura Dern will win Finest Supporting Actress, and Brad Pitt will win Finest Supporting Actor, now that they as a quartet have performed the identical factor on the Golden Globes, Critics’ Selection and tonight at SAG. It’s a constant drum beat for every.

SAG Awards: ‘Parasite’ Wins For Movement Image Solid; ‘The Crown’, ‘Mrs. Maisel’ Lead TV – The Full Winners Checklist

ParasiteParasite

Neon

However maintain on! SAG shocked by additionally throwing a burst of momentum that cash can’t purchase to Bong Joon Ho’s Parasite, which made historical past in a really large manner by taking the Excellent Solid award on the finish of the evening, a primary for SAG for what was solely the second foreign-language movie ever to even be nominated in that class after Roberto Begnini’s Life Is Lovely made it it 21 years in the past. Even though no forged members of South Korea’s Parasite have gotten an Oscar nomination (very like what occurred final yr when Black Panther took SAG’s Solid prize), that is unmistakably an amazing dose of adrenaline to Neon’s Oscar marketing campaign, the place it’s bidding to be the primary foreign-language movie ever to win Finest Image.

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The Solid prize is alleged to be SAG’s model of Finest Image, but it surely isn’t actually, and the final two Finest Image Oscar winners, The Form of Water and Inexperienced E-book, weren’t even nominated for it. However on this case it should possible have an effect. As I identified within the stay weblog, when the Parasite forged got here out to current a clip of their movie early within the present and acquired such an enthusiastic standing ovation, it was in all probability a sign of the upset victory to come back. I can not recall any forged of any nominated film ever getting that sort of welcome on the SAG Awards for simply introducing a clip.  After they really gained, the place exploded, and I assumed Neon topper Tom Quinn was going to have a coronary heart assault. It was the sort of real heartfelt and enthusiastic response which may ship shock waves by means of the opposite contenders.

On high of this Parasite additionally made historical past Friday evening by taking the award for Movie Modifying for a Drama on the ACE Eddie Awards, one other surprising win that additionally was a watch opener for awards-season pundits. This one-two punch has made the long-shot bid by Parasite a a lot larger actuality. It’s a movie you hear many Academy members enthusiastically speak about as their favourite, and that interprets into votes. Now that it has SAG and ACE wins, consideration will solely enhance.

Sam MendesSam Mendes

Sam Mendes onstage Saturday on the PGA Awards
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Eventually evening’s Producers Guild Awards, Parasite was one of many 10 nominees for Finest Image, however with a voting system equivalent to the Academy’s — the place every film should be ranked in your poll so as of choice — it got here up quick. The massive winner with the PGA was as a substitute the identical shock winner on the Golden Globes for Finest Movement Image Drama, and that was Sam Mendes’ 1917. In its 30-year historical past the PGA has accurately predicted Oscar’s Finest Image winner 21 instances, a formidable monitor report. It first nominated all 9 movies that went on to get Oscar nominations final Monday as nicely, so the PGA Awards’ affect can’t be underestimated. The mixture of a Globe and PGA win is what propelled Inexperienced E-book, from the identical Common/DreamWorks group, to their Oscar Finest Image triumph final yr.

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And the wins for Parasite on the Eddies and SAG do nothing to cut back 1917’s possibilities because the December 25th restricted launch was completed too late to be seen by many in time for SAG’s voting, which began in mid-November, and its large promoting level will not be cast-driven anyway, pretty much as good as these two lead principally unknown actors are. Plus, as a result of it’s thought to be a “one-shot” movie, it downplays its possibilities for enhancing awards, and in reality it wasn’t even nominated in that class on the Oscars (oddly it did win there at Critics’ Selection).

The actually large showdown now’s arrange for subsequent Saturday on the DGA Awards, the place Mendes and Bong are among the many nominees. A win there for both film will create virtually unstoppable momentum, however not essentially a deadly blow because of the Academy’s difficult voting system for Finest Image. That is what provides prognosticators ulcers.

Brad PittBrad Pitt

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Down however not out this weekend was the Golden Globe (Comedy/Musical) and Critics’ Selection Finest Image, As soon as Upon a Time in Hollywood, which has topped many prediction lists however misplaced some steam by not successful at PGA or taking the Solid award at SAG –which I assumed it will as a result of it’s partly a film about actors, one with which the good majority of SAG members ought to be capable to establish.  Pitt was a giant winner for the movie, although. It additionally didn’t issue on the ACE Eddies, the place it was overwhelmed by Jojo Rabbit within the comedy class, and extra troubling it began the week with a formidable 10 Oscar nominations, however a snub within the all-important Modifying class. A win for Quentin Tarantino at DGA might flip it throughout immediately however that’s no slam dunk, and since he isn’t a member of the WGA, OUATIH will not be nominated for his or her February 1 awards. That may solely depart BAFTA on February 2 as a final alternative to make some noise earlier than Oscar voting closes.

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Robert De NiroRobert De Niro

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Netflix has seen higher days too, now struggling three unhealthy Sundays in a row for his or her hopefuls The Irishman and Marriage Story, which at the least has the latter’s Dern triumphing as Finest Supporting Actress persistently as she did tonight at SAG. Irishman nevertheless was shut out utterly on the Globes and SAG, and cashed in solely one in every of its 14 nominations, for Finest Ensemble, at Critics’ Selection. Maybe Robert De Niro’s rousing SAG Life Achievement Award speech will deliver some renewed focus to Irishman despite the fact that he personally was missed for SAG, Globes, Oscar and BAFTA noms. There may be nonetheless the DGA and WGA, the place that Martin Scorsese movie can begin to make a case and attempt to flip it round. However this season is getting shorter by the minute and time is operating out.