Guar seed space in Rajasthan has been choosing up in current weeks resulting from good rains in producing districts. Guar space improve by about 55.eight per cent inside every week to 22.6 lakh hectares (ha) as on first week of August from 14.5 lakh ha in the course of the finish of June as per information from the state agriculture division.
The sudden improve in space has been retaining the costs below strain. Guar seed futures fell about 2.5 per cent in August to Rs four,200 per 100 kg. Furthermore, guar gum exports are additionally disappointing within the first quarter. In response to the Commerce Ministry information, guar gum exports was decrease 5.6 per cent on 12 months to 1.27 lakh tonnes.
Earlier within the season, it was consolidating above the Rs four,300 stage as shares had been decrease with farmers and stockists resulting from steady drop in manufacturing within the final 5 years coupled with regular improve in guar gum exports.
In 2019, guar seed futures slipped throughout Jan-Feb interval resulting from ample arrivals. Nonetheless, it recovered about 10 per cent in March from February lows supported by good export demand and stories of El Nino. The demand for guar gum as a hydraulic fracturing agent elevated after crude oil costs began rising from $45 a barrel in October to $72 a barrel in April. Crude oil costs have now slipped under $60 a barrel.
Space below guar has been declining through the years in Rajasthan throughout resulting from comparatively lower cost realisation by farmers. The worth realisation from pulses, oilseed and cotton is larger for farmers in contrast with guar seed. Thus, in 2019-20, guar seed space in Rajasthan is predicted to be round 30-32 lakh ha in opposition to over 50 lakh ha in 2013-14, a dip of 40 per cent in six years.
Guar seed manufacturing through the years has dropped significantly as farmers have minimize guar space in Rajasthan resulting from larger return in pulses and oilseed. Final 12 months (2018/19) manufacturing was decrease by 17 per cent on 12 months to 10.three lakh tonnes in accordance with the third advance estimates by Rajasthan authorities in contrast with 12.four lakh tonnes within the earlier 12 months.
Nonetheless, the state authorities has projected guar manufacturing to extend by 45.5 per cent throughout 2019-20 (July-June) season to 15 lakh tonnes as farmers had extra income final 12 months in contrast with the earlier three years.
Guar output is predicted to rise on anticipation in sharp rise in yields to 500 kg per ha in comparison with 334 kg final 12 months.
Outlook
Within the first half of the present calendar 12 months, guar seed costs had been larger in comparison with final 12 months resulting from decrease manufacturing and regular guar gum exports. Nonetheless, we count on that good monsoon rains, weaker rupee, low crude oil costs and declining will hold costs below strain within the coming weeks. Furthermore, demand for guar gum exports within the current months has been decrease resulting from larger costs.
At present, we see a powerful help on the Rs four,100 stage and going ahead, the costs might solely choose up if export demand improves, whereas decrease acreage in Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat can even help costs in the long term.
(Please seek the advice of your monetary adviser earlier than taking any place within the commodities talked about)
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